If economic growth at 7%, coal demand (growth) in about 2-3%, coal imports or will slow growth in China, the domestic market is impacted by the imported coal strength will be weakened.
Data show that China's coal production is 1.79 billion tons in the first half of this year, compared to reduce 68 million tons, down 3.7%, decline than in the first quarter expanded 2.7%. Among them, the country's coal production fell by 6.4% year on year in June, decline further.
Liang Duishi say about it, in the first half of this year China's coal production continues to decline, and drop expands unceasingly, the influence of both macroeconomic adjustments fell back quickly, also is the construction of a productivity of super powers of reason, there is also a national infrastructure improve at the same time, countries to promote energy conservation and emission reduction, strengthen the construction of ecological civilization, to control the influence of coal consumption.
"This is the result of the enterprise take the initiative to adjust, is also the result of the market reversed transmission", its truth.
Notable is, China's coal trade growth is slowing. Data show that in the first half of the consumption of 1.93 billion tons, up 1.8% from a year earlier, faster than 2012 fell 1%, fell by 7.16% over 2011.
Liang Duishi pointed out that China's coal demand growth is slowing, slow growth is mainly due to coal demand, electricity consumption during the first half year-on-year growth of 5.1%, fell by 0.4% year-on-year.
"In recent years, the scale of hydropower, wind power, nuclear power development, inhibits the growth of the coal and electricity. Hydropower capacity increased significantly in the first half of this year, many parts of hydropower station is established, and even have been built in the trunk of the yarlung zangbo river hydropower station".
Liang Duishi said, with the coal production capacity continues to release, the market is still there will be a structural surplus situation, the coal demand will continue to slow growth, "the first half of next year as the form of supply and demand of coal is still grim, pressure will still exist".
He pointed out that due to domestic coal prices have fallen sharply, the late import coal impact to domestic coal market strength will be weakened, "now the Indonesian coal and qinhuangdao coal prices down 3% per ton, coking coal price difference is shrinking, the change of the price will further affect the growth of coal imports, forecast China's coal imports may be flat compared with last year, this year will be even decline".
Liang Duishi also pointed out that because of our country is facing is not predominantly small coal mines to combat overcapacity, but the excess production capacity of large enterprises, the difficulty of consumption will increase. Therefore, China coal inventory needs to be a long time, "coal gold period over the past 10 years, return to adjust the time will be longer, will also enter a long period of time adjustment".
He thinks, at present the most urgent task is to control total amount, to strengthen management and promote coal economy running smoothly.
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